DEMETER RESOURCE GROUP, LLC

Farm-to-America (FTA): Replacing Oil, Coal, Solar, Wind & EV Dependence with a National Biomass Energy Doctrine A Comprehensive Policy Brief for Congressional Review

Foreword — Who I Am and Why This Exists

Demeter Resource Group, LLC Founded and run by one man — Liam Dobrinski, a 42-year-old disabled veteran with a high-school education, living on a fixed income.

I don’t hide that. I lean into it. I’m not polished, I’m not establishment — I’m Middle America in the flesh. Life hit me hard, I got back up, and now I’m standing here with something real to offer. With a gaming PC, two AI tools, and $250 for an LLC, I wrote in three weeks what think tanks spend millions to develop. I sent it to my senators, my representative, the White House inbox, the Colorado GOP, and Joe Rogan — because Farm-to-America belongs in the national conversation.

Plain-English Promise: From a water bottle to an F-35, what once required oil now only requires American waste and American farmers.

One-Page Summary (Expanded)

Objective: Replace U.S. dependence on oil, coal, solar, wind, and EV battery megaprojects with a distributed biomass energy system powered by sewage, post-consumer food waste, agricultural residues, and algae, while keeping nuclear and hydro as they are (substituting bio-equivalent lubricants/consumables where oil is used).

Method: Convert coal/oil plants to ethanol steam; pivot wind/solar factories to boilers, turbines, and bioreactors; redirect EV R&D/lines to pure ethanol vehicles and right-sized grid batteries; re-prime rail with biomass-fired steam turbines; pipe city sewage to algae treatment for fuels and polymers.

Authority: No new laws required — use ESPC/UESC, PPAs, BAAs/OTAs, SBIR/STTR, DPA Title III, and existing utility tariffs.

Timeline: 10-year soft transition with Phase 0 pilots in 90 days; first energization inside 9–12 months; national federation by Year 10.

Defense: Replace petro-consumables across bases, silos, carriers, and depots; bio-jet for aircraft; end diesel convoy dependence.

Economy: Jobs move, not die; tax base stays whole via a Resilience Capacity Charge (RCC) replacing fuel excise; exports of bio-fuels and bioplastics add revenue.

Risk & Price: Modest CPI bump (~0.3–0.6pp for 6–12 months) followed by disinflation (-0.2–0.4pp/yr) as volatility collapses; medical and food packaging protected with buffers and priority lanes.

Table of Contents

Findings & Purpose

The FTA Doctrine

Sector Conversions (Power, Transport, Industry, Digital, Defense)

Sewage-to-Algae Program (City Waste to Fuel & Polymers)

Ten-Year Transition & Milestones

Governance, Authorities & Contracting (No New Laws)

Standards & Certification Roadmap (EPA/CARB, ASTM, IMO, IEEE, NFPA, UL)

Fueling & Infrastructure (Retail, Depots, Rail)

Market Design (RCC Tariff & RSA Contracts)

Measurement, Verification & Public Dashboards

Cyber, Safety & Emergency Response

Feedstock Sufficiency, Mass/Energy Balance & Siting Guardrails

National Security & Public Service Transition (DoD + Agencies + First Responders + LEOs)

Workforce: Whole-of-Economy Jobs (Skilled & Unskilled) & Training Ladders

Fiscal, Revenue & Tax Impacts (Domestic + Exports)

Inflation, Shortages & Biomedical Risk

Notional Corridor Economics (Capex/Opex, $/resilient kW-yr)

State & Local Partnership Playbook (EJ/Tribal, siting, financing)

Cultural Parable (Landman → Waste-to-Fuel)

Economic Outlook: What America Looks Like After the Flip

Glossary Annexes A–H (Equivalents, Contract Templates, KPIs, Safety, Workforce Credentials, Authorities Map, Certification Gates, Buffer Targets)

1) Findings & Purpose

America’s economy is oil-entangled: plastics, fibers, lubricants, fertilizers, adhesives, asphalt, solvents, and backup diesel. Even nuclear and hydro use petroleum-based lubricants and diesel gensets.

Electrification alone cannot carry heavy industry, freight, and rural resilience on the required timeline without massive mineral supply chains.

FTA’s thesis: keep the machines, change the fuel. Every oil function gets a biomass equivalent sourced from domestic waste streams and farms.

2) The FTA Doctrine

Steam-Turbine Backbone: Swap boilers/burners to ethanol/bio-oils; keep turbines, switchyards, and labor intact.

Biomass Equivalents:

Fuels: E100 ethanol (road), ATJ/HEFA/FT-SPK (jet), bio-methanol/ethanol (marine).

Materials: Bio-PE/PET/PLA/PHA plastics; lignin/biogenic epoxies; algae-based lubricants and hydraulic fluids.

Right-Sized Storage: LFP/lead-acid for 2–8 hours (frequency/black-start/ride-through), not mineral-intense multi-day.

Keep Nuclear/Hydro: No change to generation; substitute bio-lubricants and ethanol backup power where oil is used.

No New Roads/Rails/Airports: Reuse depots, railyards, terminals, and right-of-way; convert, don’t construct.

3) Sector Conversions (Detailed)

3.1 Power

Coal Units → Ethanol Steam:

Scope: Replace coal mills/boilers with ethanol/bio-oil burners; retain turbines, condensers, HRSGs, controls (with updates).

Cutover: 9–18 months per unit depending on size and permitting; outage overlap staged to protect grid stability.

Output Profile: Dispatchable, black-start capable, voltage/frequency support.

Peakers → Ethanol/Bio-Oil:

Swap fuel trains/burners; maintain ramp rates; add small batteries for sub-second response.

Hospitals/Bases/Water Plants:

Microturbines 1–10 MW + 2–4h batteries; islanding playbooks; priority circuits (gates, comms, water, cold chain).

3.2 Transport

Rail:

Diesel-electric locomotives re-primed with biomass steam turbine prime movers.

Railyards host ethanol fueling and fire-resistant facilities (alcohol-resistant foams).

Crew training updated (steam operations; ethanol safety).

Road:

E100 light-duty & heavy-duty platforms; EPA/CARB certification; material compatibility for lines, seals, tanks.

R&D scale: ≈$50M per platform to retool injectors, compression, ECU software, seals — months, not decades.

Aviation:

Bio-jet via ASTM D7566 pathways; DoD transitions high-tempo squadrons first; civilian carriers phase by route.

Marine:

Bio-methanol/ethanol for tugs/ferries/short-sea; port bunkering retrofits; Coast Guard training.

3.3 Industry & Digital

Polymers & Packaging:

Replace PE/PET with bio-PE/bio-PET/PLA/PHA; dual-source with recycled content during ramp.

Lubricants & Hydraulics:

Algae-based synthetic esters for turbines, gearboxes, pumps.

Data Centers:

Ethanol microturbines replace diesel gensets; bio-based cable sheathing, resins, coolants.

3.4 Defense & Aerospace (overview)

Bases: ethanol turbines; microgrids; zero-trust telemetry.

Triad Support: silos/subs backup → ethanol/bio-lubricants; bombers on bio-jet.

Tactical: ethanol ground fleets; drones/helos on bio-jet; fewer convoy risks.

4) Sewage-to-Algae Program (City Waste → Fuel & Polymers)

Doctrine Amendment (explicit): Cities pipe sewage sludge and organic leachate to regional algae/biorefinery hubs.

Flow:

Primary/secondary sludge dewatered → anaerobic digestion (biogas) + nutrient liquor.

Nutrient liquor feeds algae ponds/photobioreactors → lipids (bio-oils), proteins (animal feed options), carbohydrates (ethanol feed).

Lipids → bio-lubricants/bio-jet blends; carbs → ethanol; residuals → fertilizer.

Throughput (planning ratios):

1 million people ≈ 100–130 MGD wastewater; yields ~10–15M gal/yr ethanol-equivalent + ~3–5M gal/yr bio-oils, plus digestate nutrients.

Capex: $8–15/gal-annual of integrated algae/digester capacity (modular).

Opex: $0.60–$1.10/gal blended, before credits for avoided landfill/haul.

Policy lever: Sewage-to-Fuel Service Agreements (city ↔ corridor operator) with tipping-fee offsets (landfill avoided cost becomes fuel revenue).

5) Ten-Year Soft Transition & Milestones (Gated)

Years 0–1 — Phase 0 (Design & Launch)

Joint working group (DoD, USDA, DOE, HHS, EPA, DOT, DHS, selected IOUs/co-ops).

Publish FTA Technical Playbooks (boilers, ethanol safety, microgrid controls, RSA templates).

Announce 3 pilot corridors; certify first E100 retail dispensers; lock first agency fleet orders.

Years 1–3 — Phase I (Pilot Operations)

Convert 3–6 coal units to ethanol steam; energize hospital/base microgrids.

Detroit: certify 1 light-duty and 1 heavy-duty E100 platform; first municipal/USPS fleets deployed.

Rail: first yard conversions; crew training complete.

Years 3–6 — Phase II (Scale Up)

Expand corridors 3–5×; add 10–15 ethanol units; 100+ microgrids at critical facilities.

Aviation: DoD squadrons on 50–100% bio-jet for designated sorties/routes.

Launch Strategic Polymer Reserve and Strategic Ethanol Reserve (90-day buffers).

Years 6–10 — Phase III (Full Federation)

National RCC in place; RSAs cover priority circuits nationwide.

Retail ethanol widely available; marine bunkering at major ports; bio-jet baseloaded.

Nuclear/hydro consumables fully bio-based; diesel back-ups retired after ethanol microgrids prove.

6) Governance, Authorities & Contracting (No New Laws)

ESPC/UESC: finance and operate microgrids at bases, hospitals, schools (paid from savings + resilience fees).

PPAs: dispatchable ethanol steam supply; availability-based payments.

BAA/OTA: rapid prototyping of controllers, burners, turbines, and rail conversions.

SBIR/STTR: controller hardening, telemetry, algae reactor modules, ethanol safety systems.

DPA Title III: onshore production of controllers, inverters, digester packages, bioreactors.

GSA Schedules: bulk buys for dispensers, tanks, microturbines.

FEMA/HHS Grants: critical infrastructure microgrids (shelters, hospitals, water).

7) Standards & Certification Roadmap

Road Vehicles: EPA/CARB E100 certification; material compatibility spec; UL-listed retail equipment.

Aviation: ASTM D7566 pathways (ATJ/HEFA/FT) → type-cert increments to 100% for DoD first.

Marine: IMO fuel quality & emission compliance for bio-methanol/ethanol; USCG crew training.

Power: IEEE 1547 interconnection; NFPA 30/30A alcohol fuels; UL for fuel systems.

Safety: NFPA ethanol firefighting doctrine; fluorine-free AR foams.

8) Fueling & Infrastructure (Retail, Depots, Rail)

Sequence:

Bulk depots (terminals, railyards) retrofit tanks, seals, meters.

Agency depots (USPS, LEOs, EMS/Fire) in metro areas.

Retail corridors; co-op stations in rural counties.

Retail Conversion Grants: Very small grants/tax credits for dispenser/tank compatibility; 12–24 month cadence per metro.

Rail Logistics: Existing tank fleets re-certified for ethanol; yard firefighting upgrades; ethanol-specific SOPs.

9) Market Design — RCC & RSAs (Concrete Numbers)

9.1 Resilience Capacity Charge (RCC) — Excise Replacement

Design target: Replace ~$100B/yr gas/diesel excise with ~$110B/yr RCC.

Rate examples:

Road fuels: $0.22–$0.26/gal E100 (federal+state blended), indexed to CPI-energy.

Power resilience: $45–$65/kW-yr for islandable capacity (paid by LSEs/large users).

Collections: Existing excise remittance rails → Highway & Resilience Trust (maintain highways; fund corridor hardening).

9.2 Resilience Service Agreements (RSAs) — Capacity Product

Contract terms (example):

Islandable hours/yr: 120–240 (named circuits).

Response: freq <1s; island <30s; black-start <15m.

Availability: ≥ 98% (monthly).

Price: $140–$220/kW-yr (location & criticality dependent).

M&V: SCADA telemetry, controller logs, exercise records; independent auditor sign-off.

Performance: bonuses for <0.5s FFR; penalties for missed drills.

10) Measurement, Verification & Public Dashboards

Core KPIs:

Islandable hours delivered (by circuit).

Outage minutes avoided.

Diesel gallons displaced.

Carbon intensity (CI) score (corridor band).

Patch compliance (% devices current).

Safety incidents opened/closed (SLA).

Dashboards: Monthly, corridor-level, independent verification posted publicly.

11) Cyber, Safety & Emergency Response

Cyber: zero-trust, role-based access, MFA for field devices, signed firmware, SBOM required, network segmentation, continuous monitoring; NIST 800-53/82 controls scaled to distribution.

Safety: NFPA ethanol firefighting; OSHA PSM at bio-refineries; hazmat mutual-aid compacts; pre-incident plans for railyards/depots.

Exercises: Twice annually per site (one planned, one no-notice) with after-action fixes tracked to closure.

12) Feedstock Sufficiency, Mass/Energy Balance & Siting Guardrails

12.1 No-Edible Rule & Sourcing Hierarchy

Municipal sewage & organics

Post-consumer food waste

Ag residues & manure

Algae cultivation (fed by nutrient liquor)

Dedicated energy crops only as last resort and non-food lands

12.2 Mass/Energy Planning Ratios (order-of-magnitude)

1 ton organic waste → 60–90 gal ethanol-equivalent (mix dependent).

1 MGD sewage → ~30–45k gal/month ethanol-equivalent (after digestion + algae pass).

Digestate → 6–8 lb N / wet ton (returned to soils).

Water use: net neutral to modest positive at WWTPs; closed-loop cooling preferred at plants.

12.3 Siting Guardrails

Odor & traffic buffers: 1,000–2,500 ft; truck routing plans.

Nutrient management: soil tests; runoff controls; groundwater monitoring.

Air permits: ethanol combustion profiles; modern controls; stack monitoring.

EJ/Tribal: siting screen; revenue shares; community advisory boards.

13) National Security & Public Service Transition (DoD + Agencies + First Responders + LEOs)

DoD: bio-jet for aircraft; ethanol turbines for bases/silos/ships; algae lubricants; ethanol tactical fleets; fewer fuel convoys. Federal agencies: USPS ethanol fleets; FEMA shelters on ethanol microgrids; DHS/Border ethanol SUVs; USDA showcases farm conversions. State/Local: LEO patrol cars, EMS/fire engines on E100; prisons/schools microgrids; bio-asphalt roads; water/sewer on bio-polymers. First responders: ethanol ambulances, bio-jet helos, ethanol rescue boats; dispatch towers on islandable microgrids.

14) Workforce — Whole-of-Economy Jobs & Training Ladders

Energy jobs move: ~11M retained, ~2M new (waste logistics, plant ops, corridor O&M).

Manufacturing/Ag/Transport/Construction/Healthcare/Retail: net +1.1–1.5M over 10 years.

Unskilled surge: ~2M+ unskilled & semi-skilled roles (sorting, hauling, preprocessing, depot ops).

Credentials:

Corridor Hand (6 weeks): PPE, LOTO, forklifts, confined space, ethanol fire basics.

Operator Tech (6–12 months): turbine/boiler ops, SCADA, QA/QC, safety.

Pipelines via community colleges, unions, VA SkillBridge.

15) Fiscal, Revenue & Tax Impacts (Domestic + Exports)

15.1 Industry Revenues — Today vs. FTA (Domestic)

Sector (today → FTA)Current RevenueFTA RevenueNotesOil & Gas → Biofuels/Bio-refineries$1.6T$1.1TVolatility ↓; contracts ↑Coal → Biomass logistics/power$35B$60BLogistics expandsSolar → Boilers/turbines/bioreactors$45B$55BRepurposed linesWind → Hardware/controls/bioreactors$35B$40BService steadyEV/Batteries → Ethanol vehicles + right-sized storage$80B$80BVolume steady, capex ↓TOTAL$1.81T$1.335TTopline ↓, stability ↑

Corporate tax (23% eff.): Today ~$31B → FTA (domestic) ~$23.6B. Excise replacement (RCC): $110B/yr (vs. ~$100B today) → Net +$2–3B/yr in combined receipts after swap, with lower disaster outlays.

15.2 Exports — Add-Back

Replace 25–100% of current oil exports with biofuels → +$90–400B export revenue; midline +$225B.

With exports, bio-economy ≈ $1.56T; corp tax ≈ $33.4B; optional 2% export duty ≈ $4.5B/yr to DoD/Rural Trust.

16) Inflation, Shortages & Biomedical Risk

Inflation path: +0.3–0.6pp CPI for 6–12 months, then -0.2–0.4pp/yr disinflation as volatility collapses.

Food security: non-edible feedstocks, digestate → fertilizer; Strategic Polymer Reserve protects packaging.

Medical: Medical Priority Lane, FDA phased certifications, 6-month stockpile; hospitals move to ethanol microgrids before diesel retirement.

Risk Matrix: CPI bump (Med/Low), fertilizer gap (Low/Med→Low), medical disposables (Low/Med→Low), lubricant shortfall (Low/Med→Low), port/rail congestion (Med/Low-Med→Low).

17) Notional Corridor Economics (Worked Example)

Front Range–High Plains Corridor

Assets: 25 MW ethanol steam (2×12.5 MW) + 8 MW/32 MWh batteries; 2 digesters; 1 algae hub; retail conversion at 30 stations.

Capex (order of magnitude):

Boilers/burners/conversions: $85–120M

Digesters + algae hub: $60–90M

Microgrids (5 priority sites): $25–40M

Retail/depots/rail retrofits: $10–20M

Total: $180–270M

Opex & Revenues (steady state):

Fuel sales (E100, bio-oils): $80–120M/yr

Power sales & reserves: $18–28M/yr

RSA payments: $20–40M/yr (islandable hours)

Waste tipping offsets: $8–15M/yr

Total gross: $126–203M/yr

Resilience Metrics:

Islandable hours: 120–180/yr across named circuits

Diesel displaced: 6–10M gal/yr

Outage minutes avoided: 10–20% reduction on target feeders

CI band: publish GREET-style corridor score

$ per resilient kW-yr: $160–$220 (location & assets), competitive with diesel-only strategies when logistics, maintenance, and risk are priced in.

18) State & Local Partnership Playbook

EJ/Tribal: early siting screen; community benefit agreements; revenue shares; local hiring targets.

Permitting: coordinated “single-desk” with water, air, fire, and traffic; 180-day review clocks.

Finance: green banks, SRF, USDA REAP, state clean funds; bonding against RSA revenue; municipal utility tariffs for resilience.

Public Legibility:

“What Changes on My Street”: trash pickup → fuel; ethanol pumps at co-op station; lights stay on.

Monthly dashboards; open call lines for odor/traffic issues; quarterly town halls.

19) Cultural Parable — Landman, Rewritten

In Landman, oil shapes every life and breaks some. In FTA, the same roughneck walks into a bio-refinery turning sewage and waste into national power. His boss doesn’t die under the stress of crude volatility; he runs a steady company selling resilience to the DoD and co-ops. Same grit, better fuel.

20) Economic Outlook — After the Flip

Energy gets boring: steady prices, few outages; households/businesses plan years ahead.

Jobs move, not die: predictable payrolls, more on-ramps for unskilled/semi-skilled workers; stronger rural economies.

GDP composition: less speculative commodity churn; more advanced manufacturing, biotech, defense electronics, software on a stable energy cushion.

Taxes predictable: RCC + corporate receipts steady; fewer emergency appropriations for disaster fuel convoys and outage relief.

21) Glossary (select)

E100: 100% ethanol road fuel.

RCC: Resilience Capacity Charge (excise replacement).

RSA: Resilience Service Agreement (contract for islandable hours).

CI: Carbon Intensity (life-cycle).

Islandable hours: Hours a circuit can operate without the bulk grid.

SBOM: Software Bill of Materials.

GREET: DOE life-cycle model for CI estimation.

ANNEXES (Text-Only)

Annex A — Oil-to-Biomass Equivalents (Illustrative)

Oil Product/UseBiomass EquivalentGasoline/Diesel (road)E100 ethanolJet fuelATJ/HEFA/FT-SPKBunker fuel (marine)Bio-methanol / ethanol blendsTurbine/gear lubricantsAlgae-based synthetic estersPlastics (PE/PET)Bio-PE/Bio-PET/PLA/PHAAdhesives/resinsLignin-based, bio-epoxiesHydraulic fluidsBio-estersAsphalt/sealantsBio-asphalt, bio-binders

Annex B — Template RSA Clauses (Abbrev.)

Scope: named circuits; min islandable hours/yr.

Performance: freq <1s; island <30s; black-start <15m.

Payment: $/kW-yr; availability bonus/penalty bands; inflation index.

M&V: SCADA data; auditor access; quarterly tests; AARs.

Cyber/Safety: NIST control set; incident SLAs; NFPA compliance.

Force Majeure: storm/fire clauses; spare parts SLAs.

Annex C — KPIs & Dashboards (Abbrev.)

KPIs: islandable hours; diesel displaced; CI; outage minutes; patch compliance; safety closures.

Publication cadence: monthly; independent verifier note attached.

Annex D — Safety Doctrine (Abbrev.)

Firefighting: ethanol AR foams (fluorine-free); water supply; spill basins; mutual aid.

Training: annual hands-on drills; ICS integration.

Annex E — Workforce Credentials (Abbrev.)

Corridor Hand (6 weeks) → Operator Tech (6–12 months) → Plant/Field Supervisor (2–4 years); linked to VA SkillBridge and community colleges.

Annex F — Authorities Map (Abbrev.)

ESPC/UESC: base/hospital/school microgrids.

PPAs: dispatchable ethanol steam contracts.

BAA/OTA: fast prototypes; rail/prime mover swaps.

SBIR/STTR: controller hardening; algae modules.

DPA III: domestic kit/controller production.

GSA: dispensers/tanks/turbines bulk buys.

Annex G — Certification Gates (Abbrev.)

E100: EPA/CARB emissions + materials compatibility; UL retail systems.

D7566: ASTM bio-jet pathway scaling to 100%.

Marine: IMO fuels; USCG procedures.

Power: IEEE 1547, NFPA 30/30A, UL listings.

Annex H — Buffer Targets (Abbrev.)

SER (Strategic Ethanol Reserve): 60–90 days regional.

SPR-P (Strategic Polymer Reserve): 90 days for food/medical packaging resins.

Bio-Lube Buffer: 60 days for utilities/defense.

Cross-Industry Conversion Tables (Non-Energy Sectors)

Purpose. Make the brief scoreable and auditable across the whole economy, not just energy. Figures below are planning estimates for congressional budgeting and can be tuned in a staff workbook (recommended). Where a range is shown, assume Base Case = midpoint.

Method (one page, transparent):

Baselines reflect typical U.S. market size or domestic sales magnitudes (order-of-magnitude), not import/export splits unless noted.

Profit margin assumptions reflect steady-state, competitive markets (post-transition).

Corporate tax shown at 23% effective (≈21% federal + ≈6% blended state, net of credits).

RCC/Fees reflect the share of sector volumes that pay a resilience/usage charge (where relevant).

Oil-derived input share is the approximate material/consumable dependency today (not energy to run plants).

CI band = indicative carbon-intensity band after FTA (directional, not a certification).

Staff can replace with agency datasets (BEA IO tables, Census ASM, BLS OES, FDA/FAA/ASTM files).

1) Chemicals & Petrochemicals → Bio-chemicals

ItemValue / RangeCurrent U.S. revenue$700–900BOil-derived inputs (today)~70–85% (feedstocks, solvents, process oils)FTA steady-state revenue (domestic + export)$650–850B (mix shifts to bio-intermediates)Net margin (FTA)~10%Corporate tax @23%$15–20B/yrRCC/fees contributedMinimal (manufacturing sector; passes through via fuel/material charges)Capex to convert (10-yr)$80–140B (reactors, separations, fermentation, H&S)24-month gatesBio-feed qualification; GMP where needed; OSHA PSM re-validationPrice/availability risk (Y1–2)Medium (solvent/monomer ramp) → mitigated by dual-sourcingIndicative CI band (FTA)Low–Medium (major drop vs. petro feedstocks)Compliance notesASTM specs per product; EPA TSCA updates; OSHA PSM

Note: Early wins come from bio-solvents, bio-acids, and bio-surfactants that slot into existing formulas with minimal re-qualification.

2) Plastics & Packaging → Bio-polymers (bio-PE/PET/PLA/PHA)

ItemValue / RangeCurrent U.S. revenue$300–400BOil-derived inputs (today)~85–95%FTA steady-state revenue (domestic + export)$320–420B (value-add on certified bio-grades)Net margin (FTA)~8%Corporate tax @23%$5.9–7.7B/yrRCC/fees contributedNot direct; upstream fuels pay; packaging EPR can be alignedCapex to convert (10-yr)$35–60B (polymerization lines, compounding, tooling)24-month gatesFood-contact & medical-contact certifications; barrier properties tuningPrice/availability risk (Y1–2)Medium (bottleneck risk) → Strategic Polymer Reserve bufferIndicative CI band (FTA)LowCompliance notesFDA FCN, USP for medical contact; ASTM resin grades; UL where applicable

Note: Prioritize food & medical packaging with guaranteed allocation and buffer stock to avoid shortages optics.

3) Textiles & Apparel → Bio-fibers & Bio-polymers

ItemValue / RangeCurrent U.S. revenue (market size)$300–350BOil-derived inputs (today)~50–70% (polyester/nylon; finishing chemicals)FTA steady-state revenue$310–360BNet margin (FTA)~6%Corporate tax @23%$4.3–5.0B/yrCapex to convert (10-yr)$10–18B (biopolymer fiber lines, dye/finish chem swaps)24-month gatesWear/finish standards, colorfastness, supply qualificationRisk (Y1–2)Low–MediumCI band (FTA)Low–MediumComplianceASTM/ISO textile standards; CPSIA where relevant

Note: Blend bio-PET and emergent PHA/PLA filaments in basics first; natural-fiber/bio-blend lines get fast traction.

4) Construction Materials → Bio-asphalt, Bio-binders, Bio-resins

ItemValue / RangeCurrent U.S. revenue$200–300B (materials only; not total construction spend)Oil-derived inputs (today)~25–40% (asphalt, sealants, resins, admixtures)FTA steady-state revenue$210–320BNet margin (FTA)~7%Corporate tax @23%$3.4–5.1B/yrCapex to convert (10-yr)$15–25B (binder plants, QA, spec updates)24-month gatesDOT spec approvals; AASHTO/ASTM performance testsRisk (Y1–2)Low–Medium (spec/performance trials)CI band (FTA)Low (especially binders)ComplianceAASHTO/ASTM road specs; UL/NFPA for sealants/adhesives

Note: DOT pilots with bio-binders in asphalt offer quick, visible wins without lane closures for rework.

5) Healthcare & Medical Supplies → Bio-plastics, Bio-lubes, Ethanol Sterilants

ItemValue / RangeCurrent U.S. revenue (devices & disposables)$220–280BOil-derived inputs (today)~50–70% (resins, lubricants, solvents)FTA steady-state revenue$230–300BNet margin (FTA)~12%Corporate tax @23%$6.4–8.3B/yrCapex to convert (10-yr)$12–20B (tooling, resin switchover, validation)24-month gatesFDA 510(k)/PMA changes; USP class; sterilization validationRisk (Y1–2)Medium–High unless Medical Priority Lane + stockpileCI band (FTA)LowComplianceFDA QSR; USP; ISO 10993; AAMI sterilization standards

Note: Protect IV bags, syringes, tubing with priority allocation, pre-validated bio-resins, and a 6-month buffer to keep risk low.

6) Electronics & Data Centers → Bio-resins, Cable Sheathing, Bio-lubes; Ethanol Backup

ItemValue / RangeCurrent U.S. revenue (electronics mfg + DC infra)$350–450BOil-derived inputs (today)~25–40% (resins, coatings, cable jackets, lubricants)FTA steady-state revenue$360–470BNet margin (FTA)~8%Corporate tax @23%$6.6–8.7B/yrCapex to convert (10-yr)$18–30B (materials, genset → ethanol turbines, UL/NEC)24-month gatesUL flame ratings; NEC compliance; Tier certification updatesRisk (Y1–2)Low–Medium (materials re-qual; backup power swap)CI band (FTA)Low (scope 2 improves with microgrids)ComplianceUL 94/1581; NEC; Uptime/TIA for DCs

Note: Immediate reliability win: replace diesel gensets with ethanol microturbines, eliminating fuel storage headaches and test-run emissions.

7) Agriculture Inputs → Digestate Fertilizers & Bio-Agrochemicals

ItemValue / RangeCurrent U.S. revenue (fertilizer, crop chem, films)$70–100BOil/gas-derived inputs (today)~60–80% (ammonia via NG, petro-chem carriers, films)FTA steady-state revenue$75–105BNet margin (FTA)~8%Corporate tax @23%$1.4–1.9B/yrCapex to convert (10-yr)$8–14B (digesters, nutrient recovery, film replacements)24-month gatesLabel approvals; agronomic trials; logistics for digestateRisk (Y1–2)Medium (timing of planting season vs. supply ramp)CI band (FTA)Low (especially N recovery)ComplianceEPA FIFRA (if applicable), state ag regs; USDA programs

Note: Digestate N delivery targets 0.7× synthetic by Y2 and ≥1.0× by Y4, stabilizing fertilizer costs.

8) Logistics & Warehousing → E100 Fleets, Ethanol Yard Equipment

ItemValue / RangeCurrent U.S. revenue (truck+rail+air cargo+warehousing)$1.2–1.6TOil-derived inputs (today)~40–60% (fuel, lubes, packaging films)FTA steady-state revenue$1.25–1.65T (efficiency + fewer outage costs)Net margin (FTA)~6%Corporate tax @23%$17–23B/yrRCC/fees contributedHigh (road fuels pay RCC directly)Capex to convert (10-yr)$30–50B (vehicle swaps, yard equipment, tanks/dispensers)24-month gatesFleet procurement cycles; depot retrofits; driver trainingRisk (Y1–2)Low–Medium (fueling cadence during rollout)CI band (FTA)LowComplianceDOT/FMCSA; NFPA 30A depots; OSHA for yards

Note: Outage-resilient corridors reduce detention times and spoilage, lowering hidden inflation in goods movement.

Cross-Sector Totals (Non-Energy Sectors Only, Planning View)

MetricTodayFTA Steady-StateAggregate Revenue (these 8 sectors)$3.04–4.0T$3.21–4.18TImplied Corporate Tax @23%$48–66B/yr (today’s margins)$60–79B/yr (FTA margins)10-yr Conversion Capex—$206–362B (distributed, modular)Price/Shortage Risk (Y1–2)—Low–Medium overall with buffers/priority lanesDirectional CI—Lower across all sectors

Interpretation: Outside of “energy-proper,” the broader economy grows slightly in steady state under FTA (value-add on bio-materials, fewer outage losses, lower volatility). Corporate taxes from these sectors tick up on healthier margins and fewer shock write-offs. Up-front capex is manageable and largely modular.

Sensitivity Bands & Dials (for staff workbook)

Revenue ±10%, Margin ±2 pp, Capex ±25% per sector; recompute corporate tax and RCC receipts automatically.

Priority Allocation Toggles: Medical & food packaging “on” keeps shortage risk Low; turning off raises to Medium.

Export Scenarios: Add +0 / +$100B / +$225B / +$400B exports to bio-chemicals and bio-polymers, update taxes accordingly.

Inflation Path: Keep Year-1 CPI bump at +0.3–0.6 pp unless buffers/priority lanes are disabled.

One-Paragraph Sector Notes (for committee staff)

Chemicals: Fastest wins via bio-solvents/surfactants that are drop-in; deeper monomer swaps follow.

Plastics/Packaging: Protect food & medical first with a 90-day polymer buffer; retail packaging follows.

Textiles: Blend bio-PET/PLA/PHA in basics; re-engineer performance apparel second.

Construction: DOT pilots for bio-binders; adhesives/resins follow with UL/AASHTO tests.

Healthcare supplies: Medical Priority Lane and phased FDA validations prevent any IV/tubing backlogs.

Electronics/DCs: Swap diesel gensets → ethanol turbines; certify UL/NEC for resins and cables in parallel.

Ag inputs: Digestate N closes fertilizer gap; film/plastic swaps run through growing-season calendars.

Logistics: Early USPS/school bus/LEO fleets anchor fueling nodes; private carriers follow smoothly.

Compliance Index (reference quick list)

ASTM: D7566 (aviation fuels), polymer grades; AASHTO/ASTM (roads).

EPA/CARB: E100 engine certification; TSCA where applicable; FIFRA for ag chems.

FDA/USP/AAMI: medical materials & sterilization.

UL/NEC: electrical & materials; NFPA 30/30A fuels.

OSHA PSM: process safety; NIST 800-53/82 for cyber on controls.

“What Changes on My Street?” (one paragraph you can reuse)

Trash and sewage go to a local bio-hub instead of a landfill. Your co-op station adds an ethanol pump. School buses and USPS trucks run on E100. The hospital and water plant sit on an islandable microgrid that never goes dark. Groceries show up on time because trains and trucks don’t stall for diesel, and packaging still works — it’s just bio-plastic now.

Environmental Impact: Before vs. After (10-Year FTA Transition)

A. Baseline (Today)

Total U.S. GHGs (2022): 6,343 MMT CO₂e. Transportation is the largest slice (≈28–29%); electric power ≈24–25%; the rest is industry, buildings, agriculture and waste. US EPA+1

Landfill methane (2022): 119.8 MMT CO₂e, ≈17.1% of U.S. anthropogenic methane; food waste drives ~58% of landfill fugitive CH₄. US EPA+1

Power-plant criteria pollutants (2022): SO₂ ≈0.85 million tons, NOₓ ≈0.75 million tons (utility fleet). US EPA

Food waste flows: ~66 million tons (retail/food service/residential) + ~40 million tons (manufacturing/processing) in 2019; ~60% of retail/food-service/residential went to landfill. US EPA+1

B. What Changes Under FTA (Year-10, Two Scenarios)

Assumptions reflect your doctrine: petroleum/coal retired; nuclear & hydro kept “as is”; wind/solar manufacturing repurposed; transport/aviation/marine fuel becomes waste-/residue-/sewage-/algae-derived ethanol & bio-jet; coal units converted to ethanol/biogas steam turbines; sewage + food waste diverted to digesters and algae; no new cropland required (non-edible streams prioritized).

Lifecycle carbon intensity (CI) anchors

Fossil gasoline baseline ≈ 93–97 gCO₂e/MJ (EPA RFS & CARB literature). RSBRenewable Fuels Association

Waste-based pathways can be very low or even negative CI where avoided landfill methane is credited (LCFS precedent for negative-CI organics-to-fuel). Kleinman Center for Energy PolicyBioCycle

SAF targets (for bio-jet) aim ≥50% lifecycle reduction vs. 89 gCO₂e/MJ jet baseline. The Department of Energy's Energy.govNREL Docs

Scenario A — “Ramp” (credible 10-year uptake)

Transport fuels: 50% of on-road + aviation/marine energy supplied by FTA fuels at ~60% lower lifecycle CI on average.

Electric power: 40% of fossil generation replaced by ethanol/biogas steam + microgrids (nuclear/hydro unchanged).

Landfills: 70% cut in net CH₄ via diversion to digesters/algae and tighter capture.

Indicative annual reductions

Transportation: 6,343 × 29% × 50% × 60% ≈ ~0.55 Gt CO₂e avoided/yr. US EPA

Electric power (fossil CO₂): ~0.61 Gt CO₂ (40% of ≈1.53 Gt) displaced by biogenic combustion + upstream low-CI pathways. Institute for Policy Integrity

Landfill methane: 119.8 × 70% ≈ ~84 MMT CO₂e avoided/yr. US EPA

Scenario A total: ~1.25 Gt CO₂e/yr (~20% of 2022 gross emissions).

Scenario B — “Max Feasible Year-10” (aggressive but still bounded)

Transport fuels: 80% supplied at ~70% lower lifecycle CI (mix of ethanol/bio-jet with more negative-CI streams).

Electric power: 80% of fossil generation retired/converted.

Landfills: 85% net CH₄ abatement via diversion + capture + oxidation.

Indicative annual reductions

Transportation: 6,343 × 29% × 80% × 70% ≈ ~1.03 Gt CO₂e/yr. US EPA

Electric power (fossil CO₂): ~1.22 Gt CO₂ (80% of ≈1.53 Gt) displaced. Institute for Policy Integrity

Landfill methane: 119.8 × 85% ≈ ~102 MMT CO₂e/yr. US EPA

Scenario B total: ~2.35 Gt CO₂e/yr (~37% of 2022 gross emissions).

Notes:

Electric-sector figures use direct fossil CO₂ that disappears when fossil plants are replaced/converted; the biogenic CO₂ from ethanol/biogas is accounted upstream in LCA and can be near-zero or negative if feedstocks avoid methane. (LCFS & DOE GREET frameworks underpin the accounting.) Kleinman Center for Energy PolicyUS EPA

C. Co-Pollutants, Water, Land & Health

Criteria Pollutants (annual)

SO₂: Power-sector SO₂ (~0.85M short tons in 2022) largely eliminated as sulfur disappears with biomass alcohol fuels. US EPA

NOₓ: Power-sector NOₓ (~0.75M short tons) falls sharply with combustion redesign + controls. US EPA

Public-health upside: peer-reviewed work indicates tens of thousands of avoidable premature deaths if energy-related PM₂.₅ & precursors are cut; order-of-magnitude 6,000–50,000 lives/yr depending on depth and geography. The GuardianAGU Publications

Water

Process water: Modern dry-grind ethanol uses ~3–4 gal water/gal ethanol; cellulosic concepts ~1.9–6. Petroleum refining uses ~2–2.5 gal/gal gasoline. FTA fuels that reuse wastewater (WRRF side-streams) can be net-neutral at the basin scale. Renewable Fuels Association

Quality: Organics diversion lowers landfill leachate burden and groundwater risk. RMI

Land & Materials

No new cropland: feedstocks = sewage, food waste, ag residues, algae → avoids land-use change penalties (LCFS acknowledges LUC variability; waste pathways typically lower CI). California Air Resources Board

Mining relief: Reduced demand for coal and battery-grade metals eases surface disturbance and associated tailings/acid-mine issues (qualitative benefit; depends on the pace of EV-to-ethanol retooling).

D. Waste Diversion & Methane

Available diversion pool (illustrative): – Retail/food service/residential: ~39.6M tons landfilled in 2019 (59.8% of ~66M). US EPA – Manufacturing/processing: ~40M tons generated (large share already to AD/animal feed). US EPA

FTA corridors prioritize organics-to-AD and sewage-to-algae, the two highest-impact diversion routes after “reduce” and “feed people.” Divert

Why this matters: Landfills emitted 119.8 MMT CO₂e CH₄ in 2022; food waste alone drives 58% of fugitive landfill methane. Every ton diverted to AD or algae flips a methane source into fuel. US EPA+1

E. Aviation & Defense Fuels

Bio-jet SAF under DOE’s 40B/45Z GREET aims ≥50% lifecycle cuts vs. jet fuel baseline (89 gCO₂e/MJ); algae routes can scale post-2030 milestones (3B gal by 2030; 35B gal by 2050 is the national SAF goal). The Department of Energy's Energy.govNREL Docs

F. Monitoring, Reporting & Verification (MRV)

Fuel CIs certified under EPA RFS LCA / CARB LCFS (site-specific, 3rd-party-verified). US EPACalifornia Air Resources Board

Methane tracked via EPA GHGRP + satellite/aerial campaigns to verify real CH₄ abatement from diversion. US EPA

Power pollutants tracked via EPA CEMS (Acid Rain Program & CSAPR). US EPA

G. One-Page Summary Table (Annual, Year-10)

MetricBaseline (2022)Scenario A (Ramp)Scenario B (Max Feasible)Gross U.S. GHG (MMT CO₂e)6,343–1,250 (net)–2,350 (net)Transport CO₂e cut—~550~1,030Electric power fossil CO₂ cut—~610~1,220Landfill CH₄ cut119.8~84~102SO₂ power (short tons)~850,000↓ ~80–95%↓ ~90–99%NOₓ power (short tons)~750,000↓ ~60–90%↓ ~80–95%

Sources: EPA GHG Inventory (2022 totals, sector shares); EPA LMOP & GHGRP (landfill CH₄); EPA ARP/CSAPR (SO₂/NOₓ); DOE/EPA/LCFS CI baselines (gasoline/jet & low-CI waste fuels). US EPA+3US EPA+3US EPA+3Institute for Policy IntegrityRSBThe Department of Energy's Energy.gov

H. Caveats & Guardrails (for credibility)

CI variance: Actual lifecycle scores depend on site-specific energy, logistics, and counterfactual waste handling (how the material would have decomposed). That’s why LCFS/GREET require project-level verification. US EPAGTI Energy

Air toxics & NOₓ control: Ethanol/biogas turbines still need modern combustion controls to lock in NOₓ reductions—budget them in the conversions (standard practice).

Water: Keep ethanol plants tied to WRRF side-streams and recycling to hold basin withdrawals flat. Renewable Fuels Association

Bottom Line for the environmental section

GHG: A realistic 10-year FTA ramp can remove ~1.25 Gt CO₂e/yr; an aggressive but still plausible deployment reaches ~2.35 Gt/yr—20–37% below the 2022 gross, before other national policies are counted.

Air quality: Power-sector SO₂ virtually disappears; NOₓ/PM₂.₅ plunge—translating to thousands to tens of thousands of avoided deaths every year, plus large cardiopulmonary benefits. AGU PublicationsThe Guardian

Methane: Diverting organics and sewage flips a top-tier climate problem into feedstock, cutting ~70–85% of landfill CH₄ in participating regions. US EPA

Closing to Congress

We end the oil century without breaking the American century. We keep the machines; we change the fuel. We keep the workers; we move the jobs. We keep nuclear and hydro; we swap the oil inside them. We don’t need new laws or new roads — we need new discipline. Let’s power America with what America throws away.

Demeter Resource Group, LLC — William Dobrinski